Ever since they fell behind the Atlanta Hawks 2-1 in the first round, everything has pointed toward the New York Knicks having the clearest path yet to their first NBA Finals appearance since 1999. On the heels of the Philadelphia 76ers dispatching the Boston Celtics, this sentiment isn’t just growing stronger.
It’s etched in stone—an immutable reality that’s as daunting as it is fortunate.
Sure, you could easily make the case that the Knicks would have preferred to meet the Celtics in Round 2. Boston is smaller up front, New York had its number last year, Derrick White has been ice cold for almost an entire year, and Jayson Tatum is dealing with a calf injury less than two months into his return from a ruptured right Achilles that he suffered during Beantown’s semifinals loss to the Knicks last year.
While this is all fair, Boston continues to win the perception battle when stacked against Philly. This isn’t just about championship equity, either. The Celtics won 56 games during the regular season, largely without Tatum. Even with the Detroit Pistons lording over the rest of the conference, Boston was widely considered the favorites to come out of the East.
Thanks in part to the Sixers erasing the Celtics’ 3-1 series lead, this honor now belongs to the Knicks, though they won’t necessarily admit it.
The Sixers are worse for wear heading into the matchup against the Knicks
What Philly did to Boston is undeniable. Its defense was frenetic. The speed and toughness of rookie VJ Edgecome shone bright. Tyrese Maxey was and is a caps-lock SUPERSTAR. Paul George undermined Playoff P memes. Kelly Oubre Jr. brought the complementary sauce. The Sixers neutralized the Celtics’ offensive rebounding machine.
This list goes on. And it includes the return of Joel Embiid. Despite touch-and-go moments, he put together an offensive masterpiece in Game 7, quite visibly leaving everything on the floor en route to dropping 34 points, 12 rebounds and six assists.
But this is precisely what makes the Sixers so vulnerable. Embiid could barely walk by the end of Game 7. After missing a few weeks following an appendectomy, he is averaging over 36 minutes per game. He has to be exhausted.
The same goes for the rest of Philly. It takes a lot to climb out of a 3-1 hole, and to win a Game 7 in Boston. The Knicks will enter the second round with a pivotal rest advantage, as well as the perimeter size to rough up Edgecombe and Maxey. The surging stock of one Karl-Anthony Towns should only continue to rise against a hobbled Embiid, and a Sixers rotation that, outside of Andre Drummond, skews tiny.
This list goes on, too. And it’s why you will be hard-pressed to find anyone who isn’t predicting New York to take this series in five or six games.
The Knicks’ path to the Finals won’t get better than this
Assuming the Knicks beat the Sixers, they won’t face more favorable circumstances in the Eastern Conference Finals ever again. Some people probably said this exact same thing last year heading into a showdown against the Indiana Pacers, but we really mean it now.
Here are the cliff notes on every remaining team for those who aren’t following along: The Orlando Magic haven’t scored efficiently in consecutive games since dinosaurs roamed the Earth. The Pistons might be the most fraudulent 60-win team of all-time. At the very least, their offense ranks among the most fragile. Cade Cunningham has to do everything—doubly so with Jalen Duren turning into a pumpkin. Detroit gave the Knicks fits last year, but they’re more equipped to deal with smalls-on-KAT now.
The Toronto Raptors can field lineups that are big, long, and scary. But they suffer from more-than-occasional Magic-itis on the offensive end. If the Knicks can torpedo their transition attack the way they did Atlanta’s, it’s curtains.
Not to sound too James Dolan-y, but if New York doesn’t make the Finals this year, it’ll be a major letdown. And there are no guarantees it’ll have the chance to redeem itself. The Celtics will be back next year, presumably with a healthier Tatum. Ditto for the Pacers with Tyrese Haliburton. A team like the Charlotte Hornets could pop. A squad like the Miami Heat could acquire a big name. Detroit, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Toronto, and Atlanta aren’t going anywhere.
It won’t get any easier than this for the Knicks. Which isn’t to say it’ll actually be easy. But if they don’t capitalize on the opportunity set before them now, the one they’re supposedly built to seize, they may never get one like it for another two or three decades.